Yes...but!

July 14 2008

Home > Columns >Yes...But! Year 8-36

Here is the history of the Human race in less than 800 words.

From its very beginning humanity has always been dependent on energy. In its early stages our ancestors relied entirely on the sun and photo synthesis to provide for food: in other words men, women and children lived off the land: the fruit from the trees, the herbs in the fields and forests, the meat from animals, which also gave them clothing.

When agriculture arrived – about 10,000 years ago - the world had no more than 20 million people. Call this our ‘Homo naturalis’ era, a state of total sustainability. ‘Homo’ is the Latin for Human.

With the rise of cities new energy sources were needed and since wood was in ample supply, it was used to cook, to forge steel, to build ships and generally drive the machinery of commerce, however primitive. I named this our ‘Homo Silvanus’ phase. Silva being the Latin name for wood. The bad thing: trees are needed for a healthy life and cutting them denuded landscapes and led to erosion and deserts, exacerbated by overgrazing and population growth. Around A.D. 1 the world population had risen to some 250 million, doubling again 1500 years later.

Fortunately, when wood became scarce America was discovered, and people from Europe flocked to the new continent, extending the wood-based society for another 300 years.

Around 1800 there were 1 billion human bodies, sustained by coal, which fueled the Industrial Revolution, making Great Britain the world leader. I have labeled this the ‘Homo Carbonus’ period, after the Latin Carbo for coal. Its glory time was the 19th century. It provided the basis for our current civilization: it also filled the air in large cities such as London and New York with smog and deadly pollution.

With coal causing too much stink, and horses too much manure, Rockefeller consolidated his grip on the world’s fuel supply, some 100 years ago - becoming the world’s richest man in the process – and, through Standard Oil, prepared the planet for the Oil Age.

We built our world on the presumption that oil would last forever, becoming ‘Homo Petroleus’. The word ‘petroleus’ comes from Petra = rock and Oleum = oil. The good things about ‘oil’ we all know. It was the main factor that world population in the 20th century grew by 400 percent, so that we now have some 6.5 billion not all happy campers, as each person strives to attain a life style equal to ours in North America. Where in the 20th century people multiplied four-fold, the use of energy increased sixteen-fold.

As we move forward into the 21st century, we face a daunting dilemma, perhaps the greatest problem we have ever encountered. Forget about inflation, deflation, banks collapsing: they all are nothing compared to the looming worldwide energy crisis.

We can never go back: we can’t run society on wood or coal anymore, let alone on strict photosynthesis, pure solar energy. That was fine when the world had a few million people. Now with billions of spoiled palates we need ever more energy or starve. The danger is so large that we, all too humanly, have covered our eyes, stopped our ears, shut down our thinking powers, refusing to comprehend the immensity of the approaching predicament.

We, in Canada and the USA, consume 20 barrels of oil per person annually; in Europe they need 10 barrels, while China uses 3 and India 1.5. Without adequate supplies we will be in the same position, economically, as third world countries. Once cheap energy is gone, we are forced to become ‘Homo Naturalis’ again, reverting back to subsistence farming as is the case in Africa, and to a large extent in China, India and Indonesia. It’s abundant ‘petroleum’ that brought us where we are today. That era is now over.

Of course none of the 4 periods were perfect. Perhaps the Twentieth Century was a golden age in spite of massive hot and cold wars. A former Vice President of Esso has said that. ““Socialism collapsed because it did not allow prices to tell the economic truth. Capitalism may collapse because it does not allow prices to tell the ecological truth.” The ecological truths are that: (1) There is no free lunch; (2) Everything is connected to everything else; (3) Nature knows best; (4) Nothing ever disappears.

The consequence of our disregard for ‘ecological truths’ is that, indeed, Capitalism is collapsing, and that we now are starting to pay the real price of oil, of which Global Warming is only one aspect. There is no free lunch, not in nuclear power with uranium already in short supply, while its disposal problem remains unresolved. Nor will there ever be sufficient wind- and solar power to feed 7 billion people or enough electricity to fuel one billion automobiles.